Abstracts 2004

The following Executive Summaries provide a sample of some of the papers that will be presented at the upcoming Annual Conference to be held in Calgary, May 9-12, 2004.  Full papers will be printed in the Conference Proceedings.

Air Cargo Co-Mingling in Anchorage: Phase II

Dr. Darren Prokop
Department of Logistics
College of Business & Public Policy
University of Alaska Anchorage
Business Education Building
3211 Providence Drive
Anchorage, Alaska
99508
tel. 907-786-1992
fax. 907-786-4115
e-mail: afdjp1@cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu
website: http://logistics.alaska.edu

Executive Summary

This paper outlines the implications for Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport (ANC) resulting from the $60 billion, four year Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reauthorization bill known as Vision 100- The Century of Aviation Act. While the bill increases the FAA funding formula from 3% to 3.5% (giving ANC an expectation of $13 million in 2004 as opposed to $10 million the year before) the most significant gain is in the enhancement of the air cargo co-mingling options allowed at ANC. A foreign carrier transferring cargo at ANC is not considered by the FAA to be breaking the international journey. The co-mingling language was a rider added to the bill by Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. This paper will discuss and appraise what operations are, and are not, allowed under the new liberalization scheme.

Analysis of Accidents
Ray R. Hashemi¹, Louis A. Le Blanc², Bart Westgeest<sup>1

1</sup>Department of Computer Science
Armstrong Atlantic State University
Savannah, GA 31419

²Campbell School of Business
Berry College
Mount Berry, GA 30149

Executive Summary

A learning paradigm called LEFAR is introduced. This paradigm learns from association rules. In this paper, we test the new paradigm for the data collected by the U. S. Coast Guard for the lower part of the Mississippi River over a five year period. Four pairs of training and test sets are randomly generated from the collected data. The new paradigm was applied to every pair by learning from the training set and predicting the accident type of the records in the test set. The average of correct predictions is slightly over 70 percent. The accident predictive ability of the proposed learning paradigm is compared with the accident predictive ability of the discriminant analysis which has been applied on the same pairs of training and test sets. The results reveal the superiority of the accident predictions using the LEFAR paradigm over the discriminant analysis.

How Energy Constraints Could Ensure a Major Role for Tethered Vehicles in Canada's Next Transport Revolution

Richard Gilbert*
Centre for Sustainable Transportation
15 Borden Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 2M8
Tel: 416 923 8839; Fax 416 923 6531
E-mail: richardgilbert1@csi.com

Mee-lan Wong
Faculty of Environmental Studies
York University
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
Tel: 416 736 5252; Fax: 416 736 5679
Email: mlwong@yorku.ca

Executive Summary

After several false alarms, the prospect of major constraints on the availability of transport fuels is becoming more firmly entrenched. A consensus is emerging that world production of oil, which fuels 99 per cent of transportation, will peak during the next two decades. Potential demand could continue to rise, driven chiefly by growth in economic and transport activity in China and other industrializing countries, resulting in sharply elevated prices. North American production of natural gas, the source of about 95 per cent of the continent's commercial hydrogen, appears to have already peaked. The recent imbalance of supply and demand in this mostly continental market has resulted in extraordinary price increases.

Canada's vast size and extensive international trade make us more dependent on transportation than most affluent countries. Without adequate preparation, Canada could suffer inordinately from greatly elevated fuel prices, whether for conventional transport fuels based on crude oil or for fuels required by emerging technologies, including hydrogen for fuel cells.

Addressing potential constraints on the availability of transport fuels should become a national priority, as or more important than meeting the transport challenges posed by Canada's Kyoto commitment. Among effective responses to such constraints should be much wider use of tethered vehicles-i.e., electrically powered vehicles fuelled via rail or wire-including trains, streetcars, trolley buses, and even trolley trucks. Such vehicles can have remarkably low energy intensities. Their primary fuels can include a wide range of renewable and non-renewable sources.

This paper illustrates the advantages of tethered vehicles in an energy-constrained world, and shows how they could and perhaps should become a significant feature of Canada's next transport revolution.

*corresponding author

How a Transport Futures Assessment Could Facilitate Canada's Next Transportation Revolution

 Department of Political Science
University of Calgary
Calgary, AB T2N 1N4
Tel: 403-220-5633; Fax 403-282-4773
E-mail: aperl@ucalgary.ca

Richard Gilbert
Centre for Sustainable Transportation
Toronto, Ontario M5S 2M8
Tel: 416-923-8839; 416-923-6531
E-mail: richardgilbert1@csi.com

Executive Summary

This paper explores the potential for a scenario-based assessment of Canada's transportation futures to build a better understanding of the factors and forces that are likely to influence change. A methodology for gauging the risks and opportunities of alternative scenarios is proposed, and the analytical implications of pursuing such an investigation are presented. Alternative scenarios that incorporate differing spatial, technical, and resource assumptions are suggested as starting points to identify potential outcomes including the socio-economic implications, spatial dynamics, ecosystem and health effects, and community impacts of future Canadian transportation activity. Policy recommendations would then be generated to maximize the opportunities and mitigate the risks associated with each set of outcomes.

The period under investigation would run from 2010 to 2030, i.e., from the end of the proposed research efforts until a year by which the way that goods and people move throughout Canada, as well as between Canada and the rest of the world, can expect to experience revolutionary change. Canada needs to be better prepared for a future in which both the level and the nature of uncertainty demand more vigilance and innovation than were the norm in transportation forecasts produced during the late 20^th century.

Développements subséquents à l'adoption des modifications à la Loi sur la Concurrence pour l'industrie aérienne au Canada.

Jacques Picard
Professeur
Département de Stratégie des Affaires
École des Sciences de la Gestion
Université du Québec à Montréal
C.P.6192, Succ. Centre-Ville
Montréal (Québec), H3C4R2
Courriel : picard.jacques@uqam.ca
Tél. (514) 9873000 (4251#)
Télécopieur (514) 9870422

Sommaire exécutif

Suite à l'approbation du ministre canadien des transports, l'acquisition de Canadien International par la Compagnie Air Canada résultait en une concentration dans les mains de cette dernière de 90% des revenus passagers du marché aérien canadien intérieur. Pour pallier les inconvénients d'une telle situation de faiblesse concurrentielle, le parlement fédéral adoptait le projet de Loi C-46, qui entrait en vigueur le 5 juillet 2000.

Depuis lors, la situation a évolué aussi bien sur le terrain qu'aux niveaux législatifs et juridiques.

C'est à ces deux derniers aspects que ce texte s'intéresse.

D' une part au niveau législatif, l'adoption du projet de Loi C-23 entraîne un certain nombre de modifications , en particulier l'imposition de sanctions administratives pécuniaires assez lourdes contre un exploitant de l'industrie du transport aérien qui aurait fait l' objet d' une ordonnance d' interdiction dans le cas d'abus de position dominante.

Au niveau juridique; en premier lieu , la Cour d'appel du Québec déclare inopérant l'article 104.1 de la Loi de la concurrence, en raison de son incompatibilité avec l'article 2(e) de la Déclaration Canadienne des droits.

En effet une disposition permettant au Commissaire de la Concurrence de rendre des ordonnances provisoires contre un transporteur aérien sans en référer à un juge, est considérée comme portant atteinte aux règles de la justice fondamentale.

D'autre part, le Tribunal de la Concurrence, statuant le 23 Juillet 2003 sur la première phase d'une demande d'ordonnance par le commissaire contre Air Canada, détermine que cette dernière s'est bien livrée à des agissements anticoncurrentiels. Ceci constitue une des conditions nécessaires à la démonstration de l'existence d'une situation d'abus de position dominante (seule susceptible d' une ordonnance d' interdiction).

Il faudra cependant attendre les conclusions du Tribunal relativement à la phase II pour savoir si une telle situation s'est effectivement produite.

Design and Demonstration of a GPS/EGNOS-based Railway User Navigation Equipment (RUNE)

Livio Marradi, M.Sc. (Physics)
Livio Campa, M.Sc. (Informatics).
Laben S.p.A.
S.S. Padana Superiore 290, 20090 Vimodrone (MI), Italy
Tel.: +39 0225075 Fax: +39 022505515
marradi.l@laben.it/campa.l@laben.it

Giovanni Labbiento, M.Sc. (Mathematics)

Joseph Cianci, B.Sc. (Mechanical Eng.)
VIA Rail Canada Inc.
3 Place Ville-Marie, Montreal, Qc, Canada H3B 2C9
Tel.: 514 871 6536 Fax: 514 871 6102

Giovanni Venturi, B.Sc. (Electronic Eng.)

Ansaldo Segnalamento Ferroviario S.p.A.
Via dei Pescatori, 35, 16128 Genova Italy
Tel.: +39 0106552761 Fax: +39 0106552918

Giancarlo Gennaro, B.Sc. (Physics)

Intecs Sistemi S.p.A.
Via L. Gereschi, 32/34, 56127 Pisa, Italy
Tel.: +39 050545111 Fax: +39 050545200

Michel Tossaint, M.Sc. (Aerospace Eng.)
European Space Agency
Keplerlaan 1, NL-2201AZ, Noordwijk ZH, The Netherlands
Tel.: +31 71 56 55517, Fax: +31 71 56 54596

Executive Summary

Railway operations can be significantly improved by the use of global positioning systems in terms of navigation accuracy, safety and assistance to the operations. The EGNOS and WAAS will augment the GPS signals with additional, accurate information, and add significant strength to the overall system, ensuring the accuracy and integrity for multi-modal transport applications, and making user applications more reliable and more accurate.

The use of the GNSS-1 signals by the railways represents a technical, industrial and operational challenge. The railways have a consolidated experience using other means of navigation, which may not be ideal, but are well known and familiar to the operators. On the other hand, railways, like other modes, have to cope with a number of new challenges and are under economic pressure to improve and optimize significantly their operations in terms of track occupancy, safety, productivity and customer satisfaction.

LABEN is leading a consortium for the development and demonstration of the RUNE equipment, under contract with the European Space Agency. The project involves both a laboratory set-up and a 3 months field-testing on-board an experimental train of the Italian railways. The primary objective is to demonstrate the improvement of the train self-capability in determining its own position and velocity, with a limited or no support from the trackside, and to show that the equipment can comply with the European Railway Train Management System (ERTMS) requirements.

The achievement of such objective would lead to the reduction of the frequency of balises distributed along the track line and needed to reset the train odometer error, with significant reduction of the infrastructure cost by replacing physical balises with virtual ones, still maintaining the level of safety currently provided. In addition RUNE assists the locomotive engineer on approaching signal locations on the basis of a track map and on controlling the train velocity on the basis of allowed velocity profiles.

The paper will present the RUNE equipment architecture in terms of sensors and navigation filter design and will provide preliminary results obtained from the laboratory set-up.

Measuring What You Manage: Challenges for Provincial Transportation Policy

Executive Summary

The implicit hypothesis of the paper Measuring What You Manage: Challenges for Provincial Transportation Policy is that transportation data gaps unduly affect policy development and assessment. Warachka and Prentice of the University of Manitoba Transport Institute explore the adequacy of transportation data for the Province of Manitoba and the challenges that face provincial transportation policy. The Transport Institute recognized the need for a central reference that contained all relevant statistics specific to Manitoba's transportation sector. Efforts to produce this compendium are what identified the data gaps that are reported on in this paper.

The data gaps are detailed by mode of transport and related industry. The importance of each sector to the Province of Manitoba is also addressed. Generalized data deficiencies and reporting problems include changes to commodity and industry classification systems, amalgamation of geographic boundaries, inconsistent reporting formats, excessive lag times and confidentiality requirements.

There are many changes facing the transportation industry. These include a changing industry structure (with privatization or commercialization), environmental protection efforts, infrastructure planning, and external shocks to the environment. Without being able to understand or measure the current situation, particularly on a provincial basis, informed policy development is a myth. The paper suggests that investments should be made to improve the accuracy and timeliness of data collection and reporting, especially for provincial jurisdictions, which would increase the effectiveness of policy decisions.

The Economics of Commuter Rail Alternatives: A Comparative Cost Perspective

Stephen Richardson
Coordinator, Strategic Planning
Bombardier Transportation North America
1101 Rue Parent
St. Bruno, Quebec
J3V 6E6
Office- 450.441.2020
Fax - 450.441.3092
Email: stephen.richardson@ca.transport.bombardier.com

In the North American commuter rail environment, authorities planning to commence or expand service have a number of rolling stock options to evaluate. In the non-electrified mixed traffic operating environments that are prevalent outside of the North-eastern United States, locomotive hauled vehicles have traditionally been the equipment of choice. This has involved diesel-electric locomotives with head-end power units used in push-pull operation with either single-level or multiple-level coaches. With the imminent re-emergence of a diesel-multiple unit (DMU) vehicle compliant with Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) standards for mixed traffic operation, the available equipment options have expanded. Authorities must be provided with the required information to evaluate the cost and benefits of this newly available option in a comparative perspective. As Bombardier Transportation has an economic interest in the characteristics of life-cycle cost and wishes to help transit authorities make informed decisions at the time of new rolling stock procurements, this study evaluates the true direct costs associated with the life cycle of rail vehicles.

This study determined the following costs for typical operational configurations.

A 1-5-1 consist (669 seats) of one F40PH locomotive operating in push-pull configuration with five single level coaches and one cab car based on the design of the New Jersey Transit Comet IV vehicle was found to incur operational costs of $37.70 per mile over a 30 year life-cycle operating 50,000 miles per year.

A 1-5-1 consist (880 seats) of one F40PH locomotive operating in push-pull configuration with five bi-level coaches and one cab car based on the design of the Bombardier BiLevel commuter car was found to incur operational costs of $42.12 per mile over a 30 year life-cycle operating 50,000 miles per year.

A consist of 2 married pairs (374 seats) of DMU vehicles based on the operating costs of existing Bombardier built EMU and DMU vehicles was found to incur operational costs of $27.89 per mile over a 30 year life-cycle operating 50,000 annual miles.

Towards a New Methodological Approach to Analyse the Containerisation Process in Canada.

Jean François Pelletier, M.Sc. and Yann Alix, Ph.D
Maritime Innovation
53 rue St Germain Est
Rimouski, (Québec), G5L 4B4
jfpelletier@imar.ca
yalix@imar.ca

Executive Summary

Containerisation is a technological revolution that brought a new meaning to combined transport. It is also an organisational and logistical revolution that enabled the development of new production strategies.

For over 40 years now, multidisciplinary research combining many fields of interest has tried to understand the mechanics of this revolution. In most cases, this research concentrates more on the box than on the content of it. Is it possible to have a better understanding of the container revolution by the analysis of what is inside the box? This paper provides an overview of the potential benefits of analysing the content of container flows and gives preliminary insight on the evolution of what was inside the containerised throughput of Canadian ports over a fifteen year period.

First, main methodological considerations are presented in order to analyse changes in the types of containerised product throughput in Canadian ports. The presentation of synthetic results enables to compare "qualitative" changes in the containerised products transiting in Montreal, Halifax and Vancouver. Finally, it is suggested that further research on containerized flows should take into account the type of cargo inside the box in order to better understand the particularities of specific supply chains which compose container traffic in Canada.

Key-words : Containerisation, maritime transportation, ports, statistics, Canada

French Version

Vers une nouvelle approche méthodologique pour analyser le phénomène de la conteneurisation des marchandises au Canada

RÉSUMÉ

Le conteneur est une révolution technologique avec de nouvelles pratiques combinées de transport. C'est aussi une révolution organisationnelle avec le développement de nouvelles stratégies de production. C'est finalement une révolution logistique avec les défis du transport en conteneur et du transport des conteneurs.

Depuis 40 ans, des recherches multidisciplinaires en économie et économétrique, géographie et logistique, droit et finances, statistiques et mathématiques, cherchent à cerner les rouages de cette révolution. Ces approches analysent, le plus souvent, le contenant plutôt que le contenu de la boîte elle-même. Aussi, est-il possible de comprendre encore un peu plus l'évolution du transport en s'intéressant à ce qui se trouve à l'intérieur du conteneur ? Cette évolution de la nature des produits conteneurisés, dans le temps et dans l'espace : telle est l'objectif de la présente contribution.

En premier lieu, les principales considérations méthodologiques sont présentées pour analyser le changement dans la nature des produits conteneurisés manutentionnés dans les ports canadiens. Quelques résultats de synthèse permettent de comparer la modification « qualitative » des produits à Montréal, Vancouver et Halifax. Enfin, il est suggéré que les recherches futures sur les flux conteneurisés devraient tenir compte le type de produit trouvé dans la boîte afin de mieux comprendre les rouages des différentes chaînes d'approvisionnement qui composent les trafics conteneurisés au Canada.

Mots-clés : Conteneurisation, transport maritime, ports, statistiques, Canada

Methodology and Tool for the Canadian Shippers to Support a Sustainable Freight Transport System

Yann Alix, Ph.D and Martin Fournier, M.sc.
Maritime Innovation Robert Hamelin and associés
53 rue St Germain Est Casier postal 95
Rimouski, (Québec), G5L 4B4 Saint-Jean-Chrysostome (Québec) G6Z 2L4
yalix@imar.ca mfournier@rhamelin.com
Tel : (418) 725-3525 Ext. 307
Fax : (418) 725-3554

Executive Summary

Freight transportation is one of the most important elements contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is almost  excluded from the negotiations that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Neither pollution permits, green credits nor emission credits is associated to a specific tax or regulatory program. Moreover, the transportation sector does not have tools permitting to adoption of environmentally sound practices.

The objective of this paper is to propose a methodological principles that could underlie a decision-making tool to calculate GHG emissions of freight transportation. This innovative approach lies on the fact that the environmental responsibilities will be beared on the shippers who are the decisive element in modal choices made to carry goods. The proposed model, which includes five methodological steps, neither impose an economic or financial sanction to one mode against another nor to one shipper against another. On the contrary, it paves the way for a radical change in the way of thinking intermodal transportation.

In that way, the elaboration of a decision support system capable of finding environmentally sound modal solutions is proposed. Furthermore as a preliminary conclusion, we might assure that the database, software and model behind this system will only be developed if public policy makers make pragmatic commitments to the sustainable transportation development of. This is one of the key elements to involve some shippers in a different way of managing their transportation business.

Keys words : sustainable transportation, intermodality, greenhouse gas emissions, public policy

Local Economic Development Initiatives and Border Planning: The Huntingdon-Sumas Border Crossing

Philip Davies
Transport Canada, Vancouver

Executive Summary

This paper deals with the incentives for commercial development arising from economic discontinuities - in currencies, taxes, regulations and trade barriers - at border crossings. These issues are explored with reference to a local economic development initiative - the Sumas International Cargo Terminal - adjacent to the Canada-U.S. border crossing between Huntingdon, B.C. and the City of Sumas in Washington State. This crossing has experienced steadily increasing truck traffic over the last decade which has led to traffic congestion and border delays. The contribution of the Sumas Cargo Terminal to this congestion is assessed in the context of conflict between national trade facilitation goals and local land use decisions.

The history of the development of the Sumas International Cargo Terminal from 1986 to the present is reviewed. Factors affecting Huntingdon/Sumas border traffic over this period are identified, including exchange rates, taxation, tariffs and trade barriers, and truck size and weight regulations. Information gathered through interviews with businesses operating at the border indicates that approximately 22% of southbound truck trips at Huntingdon/Sumas are attributable to activities in the Sumas Cargo Terminal area. Relevant statistics on lumber exports, border crossing volumes, and traffic surveys are reviewed and assessed. The paper concludes that the Sumas Cargo Terminal has contributed to border congestion, but that this congestion is a normal consequence of increasing trade and that the best solution is timely improvements to border operations and infrastructure. The importance of greater coordination between all levels of government in border planning is highlighted, and the International Mobility and Trade Corridors project cited as a successful example.

The Welfare-Distributional Impacts of
Congestion Pricing on a Road Network

Robin Lindsey, University of Alberta

Executive Summary

The gradually accelerating pace at which tolls are being implemented on urban roads worldwide suggests that road pricing is an idea whose time has finally come. Toll rings are operating in Norwegian cities, time-varying tolls are being levied on a growing number of North American highways, Singapore has electronic road pricing, and in 2003 congestion pricing was boldly introduced within an area around the centre of London.

While these developments are encouraging, various technological, institutional and acceptability barriers still impede congestion pricing. One longstanding fear is of adverse impacts on low-income households or long-distance travelers. To investigate these concerns this paper analyzes a stylized urban road network on which individuals with different job characteristics commute to work. Computations are performed using METROPOLIS: a fully dynamic traffic simulation model that treats endogenously individual choices of travel mode, departure time and route.

Two types of tolling regimes are considered: a comprehensive system of finely time-varying tolls that approximately supports a social optimum, and a toll cordon. Comprehensive tolling succeeds in largely eliminating congestion with only a small reduction in the number of auto trips, and leaves workers with high values of time better off even before accounting for use of toll revenues. The cordon toll is much less effective because it covers only part of the network and shifts queues onto neighboring roads. Nevertheless, workers with high values of time gain if the cordon toll is varied in steps to suppress queuing at the peak of the rush hour.

Patents and R&D Expenditures as Indicators of Innovations in the Canadian Transportation Sector

 Dimitri Sanga, Senior Economist
Policy Research Group
Transport Canada

Executive Summary

Introduction

Innovation activities have public good characteristics. As such, if left completely unattended, a competitive market would not allocate sufficient resources to these activities. The public sector can stimulate the innovation performance of a country through the appropriate use of a range of policy instruments. As providers of policies, legislation, regulations and programs, the public sector also has a special responsibility to ensure that its own activities are innovative. In both of these roles, public authorities need to have a good comprehension of the innovation phenomenon.

Purpose

This paper provides a perspective on the innovation performance of the Canadian transportation sector using two indicators: Research and Development (R&D) and Patents.

Methodology

These indicators have been developed based on information obtained from the Canadian Intellectual Property Office patent database, the US Patent and Trademark Office database as well as OECD database on R-D.

Findings

Canadian inventors are responsible for 11.4 % of the patents delivered for transportation products in Canada. The analysis shows that US inventors have received from Canada nearly five times more patents for transportation products than Canadian inventors. For patents delivered by the US, this ratio is even greater at nearly 21 to one. Interestingly, Canadians received more patents in the US (3 662) than in their own country (2 058).

As compared to OECD leaders for the year 1999, the R-D effort for the transportation and warehousing sector (measured as total intra-mural R&D expenditures as a percentage of industrial GDP) in Canada is low. The United States leads the pack with almost $ 8.1 of R&D in transportation and warehousing per $ 10 000 US of GDP in the sector. Canada is second with only $ 3.2 while Italy is last with only 0.6.

The Effects of Two Road Safety Advertisements on Viewers' Perceptions and Driving Intentions

Tay R, Champness P & Watson B
Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety
Queensland University of Technology

 

Introduction: Despite more than 50 years of research and practice, the evidence on the effectiveness of road safety advertising is still inconclusive. However, many governments in Australia and around the world continue to invest heavily in them, especially in highly threatening TV advertisements. Recent research on the effectiveness of these fear-based advertisements has begun to focus instead on finding potential moderating factors that may have significant influence on the effectiveness of these advertisements.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of two road safety advertisements in changing drivers' intentions to speed and drive while impaired by alcohol. It will also examine the effect of three important characteristics (fear arousal, response efficacy and self efficacy) on these driving intentions. Finally, it will examine these characteristics on the likelihood of the viewers to engage in defensive avoidance or maladaptive behaviors.

Methodology: Participants in this study completed a survey after viewing one advertisement on speeding and another on drink driving. The survey collected information on the respondents' perceptions of the advertisements and the corresponding effects on their driving intentions and preference to avoid these road safety messages.

Main Findings: This study found that although the level of fear arousal is positively correlated with positive driver intentions, its impact was smaller than other characteristics such as response efficacy and self efficacy. Moreover, the higher the level of fear arousal, the more likely it is that the viewer will invoke defensive avoidance behavior, resulting in a reduction in the share of viewers. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that policy makers and advertisers focus more on providing the viewers with ample strategies to cope with the threat rather than increasing the level of threat or fear arousal in the advertisements.

Preboard Screening Analysis at Vancouver International Airport

Derek Atkins, Mehmet A. Begen, Bailey Kluczny, Anita Parkinson, Martin L. Puterman
Centre for Operations Excellence
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia
2053 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada
Tel: 604 822 1800 Fax: 604 822 1544 http://www.coe.ubc.ca

LINK to PDF file 

Operational and Tactical Planning in the Beverage Industry

Mehmet Atilla Begen, Martin L. Puterman, Ernest Wu
Centre for Operations Excellence
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia
2053 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada
Tel: 604 822 1800 Fax: 604 822 1544 http://www.coe.ubc.ca

LINK to PDF file

The Public Transit Commuter Accessibility Audit

Christopher Fullerton
Lecturer, Department of Geography, Brock University
Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Geography, University of Saskatchewan

Executive Summary

The purpose of this paper is to present the Public Transit Commuter Accessibility Audit (PTCAA), which has been created to address the need for a practical accessibility evaluation tool within the context of public transit commuting. A theoretical foundation for the PTCAA is provided by the Comprehensive Definition of Public Transit Commuter Needs, which formally outlines the infrastructure, facilities and services required by metropolitan commuters in order for public transit to represent a legitimate transportation choice. Six steps are involved in conducting a PTCAA, which can be applied within the context of actual spatio-temporal commuter travel flows to evaluate the viability of commuting to a particular employment area by public transit. This includes: the selection of an employment area, the identification of working hours at the employment area, the selection of one or more residential subareas from which public transit accessibility will be evaluated, completion of the PTCAA Checklist, the analysis of findings and completion of the PTCAA Report Card, and the reporting of results. Trial applications of the PTCAA in the City of Ottawa demonstrated the practical utility of this tool. Further research is required, however, in order to address concerns about the variability of conditions measured, the time consuming nature of the data collection component, and the potential for researcher bias.

Solving the City of Calgary High School Location Problem for the Year 2033

Sung Huan Moon and Nigel Waters
MGIS Program
Department of Geography
University of Calgary
2500 University Dr. NW
Calgary, Alberta, Canada, T2N 1N4
Tel: 403-220-5367; Fax: 403-282-6561; E-mail: nwaters@ucalgary.ca

Executive Summary

This paper describes a location-allocation model for locating new high schools in Calgary over the next twenty years. The model is made operational in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework using both the TransCAD and ArcGIS commercial GIS software. The paper reviews both the classical and recent location-allocation modeling literature and uses projections of student high school populations provided by the City of Calgary up until the year 2023. These projections are based on a cohort survival approach, the so-called DYNACAL model that incorporates both the natural increase and net migration components of population change based on the socio-economic performance of the City of Calgary. Both efficient (p-median) and equitable (p-center) solutions to the transportation problem are considered. Travel times are based on the shortest path matrix for the transit system developed by the City of Calgary. Solutions are presented both numerically and in the form of maps and a sensitivity analysis is also provided. Assumptions contained within the models are discussed and evaluated.

The Edmonton and Calgary Aviation Markets-A Tale of Two More Cities

Gordon Baldwin, Director, Transportation Division, Statistics Canada
Lisa Di Piétro, Head, Fare Analysis & International Traffic Unit, Transportation Division, Statistics Canada

Executive Summary

Aviation passenger traffic in Calgary and Edmonton were roughly equal in 1963 but the Calgary market has grown much larger than that of Edmonton. Reasons for growth in these two aviation markets often returned to the debate over a divided aviation market as the result of two airports (Edmonton) versus one at their major competitor (Calgary). It was often suggested that if flights could be consolidated into one airport, "market share" would cease to be lost to the competing airport.

Major socio-economic variables used in airport passenger forecasting are examined to see if they help to explain the different growth patterns. Population does not appear to explain the differences. Income may be one explanatory factor, with the larger concentration of higher incomes in Calgary. The immigrant population of Calgary has grown faster in the last decade and net migration to Calgary from elsewhere in Canada has been higher--both could stimulate travel. With respect to economic activity stimulating aviation, Calgary has recently led Edmonton in the value of building permits, full-time employment and head office employment. While the socio-economic variables have favoured Calgary, especially in recent years, the decline of Edmonton's passenger aviation traffic, relative to Calgary, has slowed. This has occurred after the moving of most commercial aviation passenger flights from Edmonton City Centre airport to Edmonton International airport. This may support the position that Edmonton was losing aviation passenger traffic to Calgary before the consolidation of commercial aviation flights at Edmonton international airport.

Understanding the Travel Behaviour of the Rural Elderly

Eric Hildebrand, Martin Gordon, and Trevor Hanson
University of New Brunswick Transportation Group

Executive Summary

Recently it has been shown that the elderly who live in rural areas tend to retain their driver's licenses longer than their urban counterparts and consequently experience the highest accident rates of any age group. A lack of transportation alternatives is certainly an underlying cause of this condition. In order to address the safety implications associated with rural elderly drivers, governments must investigate alternative transportation services that might permit those at risk to relinquish their driving privileges. A first step will be to better understand the travel patterns and needs of this captive group. This paper presents a summary of the survey framework developed and preliminary results of a travel behaviour study of the rural elderly undertaken in New Brunswick.

Traditional travel survey techniques rely on the participant as the sole source for the data either through recall of activities or with travel diary techniques. The return of accurate and detailed trip data can be problematic; particularly among elderly participants. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) resources have been shown to complement the traditional survey methods currently employed by researchers. With improved accuracy and functionality, GPS and GIS have the ability to quantify the older driver travel habits and ensure the survey captures a complete record.

This paper describes a pilot study of the use of passive GPS techniques and a GIS to determine the automobile trip making habits of rural and urban older drivers in the Greater Fredericton Area. Most study participants were 65 years of age and older. While efforts were made to sample equally from both sexes, through all age cohorts, and from both urban and rural areas, the study was undertaken on the basis of a convenience sample. Travel habits of the participants were tracked during full two to four-day periods as time and equipment permitted. The study results yield a survey framework as well as general findings contrasting rural and urban trip-making among elderly drivers.

The Low Cost Revolution in Western Canada: WestJet's Impact on Regional Schedules and Fares

Philip Davies, Transport Canada, Vancouver and Geoffrey Horner, Transport Canada Winnipeg

This paper deals with the emergence of WestJet Airlines as a low-cost western based regional carrier and its expanding route network and the effect on other more dominant carriers. When the deregulation of the air carrier industry was announced in the early 1980's, the expectation was that market forces would prevail and that competition would arise in the form of new entrants. It took some 10 years for a successful low cost air carrier -WestJet - to be launched and become profitable. This paper examines historical route and fare structure for selected western Canadian community pairs.

The history and significant air carrier events in western Canada in the context of a competitive marketplace is noted using aircraft type, seating and departures and airfares as indicators of the changing environment. Despite an initial small market presence, WestJet was able to influence route and fare structure. As the competition formed alliances, forged takeovers and teetered on the edge of bankruptcy, WestJet was able to capitalize on several timely events to strengthen their foothold on the western market. Eventually, the start-up carrier has equaled the efforts of its competition on the selected routes while maintaining an envious profitability record. Additionally, the fare yield management system with its complex array of rules and restrictions has given way to a simpler three fare level reservation structure employed by WestJet.

The Transportation Sector: Federal Revenues and Expenditures Balance 1991/92-2001/02 and Five Year Forecast

J. Jurgens Bekker, Senior Research Associate
Barry E. Prentice, Director Transport Institute
Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba

Abstract

Over the last decade, the federal government adopted policies of divestiture and reduced subsidies to transportation infrastructure investment and operations. The impetus for this fiscal policy change was pressure to control a rapidly growing national debt. In general, privatization of Air Canada, CN Rail and Nav Canada was positively received, as was the commercialization of the ports and airports. As the burden for providing infrastructure has fallen heavier on transport users and the secondary levels of government, however, calls have been made for a greater federal contribution.

The objectives of this paper are to provide an account of aggregate net federal spending on transportation since 1991 and to provide a five year forecast of the revenue/expenditure balance. Gross federal spending on all modes, and total revenues from both tax and non-tax sources are reported in 2000 constant dollars.

Real federal transportation spending decreased 57.3% from $5,392 million in 1991/92 to $2,302 million in 2001/02. Total revenues from transport kept pace with, or exceeded inflation. As a result, the financial impact on the federal treasury went from an annual deficit of $547 million in support of transport, to a surplus of $2.4 billion taken out of the transportation sector.

***

Author Contact Details:

Transport Institute
Asper School of Business
University of Manitoba
631-181 Freedman Crescent
Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3C 5V4
Canada
Tel. (204) 474.9842
Fax. (204) 474.7530
Internet: www.umti.ca
e-mail:
Bekker: bekkerjj@ms.umanitoba.ca
Prentice: prentic@ms.umanitoba.ca

QUO VADIS DEREGULATION?
Lessons from the marine sector

by

Paul D. Earl
Asper School of Business
University of Manitoba
Winnipeg, Manitoba

Over the past three decades, there has been a steady trend towards deregulation and privatisation of transportation. This trend is seen as being beneficial, bringing higher productivity, greater efficiency, and more flexibility to react to market conditions. However, with the growth of international terrorism, some regulatory control is necessary to provide for setting and enforcing security and safety standards.

The marine sector has not deregulatory like other modes, because of its different historical development, and because, operating outside the jurisdiction of any one state, and it is not susceptible to regulatory control. However, the marine sector also needs to enforce security and safety standards.

The question posed in this paper, therefore is this. Does the marine sector, with its freedom from regulatory control, suffer from "too much of a good thing?" That is to say, by staying free from regulatory control, has the industry failed to develop the kind of framework and machinery employed by other modes to enforce adequate safety and security measures in the face of modern terrorist threats?

The paper begins at a philosophical level, addressing the very broad issue of the role of the state in free enterprise economies, moves to a discussion of the history of marine transport and of the historic role of governments in protecting trade routes. It closes by identifying some broad general lessons that can be taken from this examination of the marine sector, and that can be applied to all modes and to the issue of deregulation in general.